4Q 2025 HDB Flash Estimates: HDB Resale Transactions Moderate to End 2025

SINGAPORE, 2 January 2026 – “Resale HDB prices continued to rise in 4Q 2025, although the pace of growth has moderated to a more stable and sustainable level. Since the end of 2024, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) has increased by just 2.9% to 203.6, compared with a 9.7% increase over the same period last year. This marks the lowest price growth since 2019, and the outcome aligns with ERA’s forecast of a 3–6% price increase for the full year.

In 4Q 2025, 5,129 resale applications were recorded, bringing the year's total to 26,042 units. This represents a notable decline from 28,986 units in 2024, largely due to increased supply from additional Sales of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises and a smaller pool of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). 

Overall HDB resale transactions in 2025 fell in line with ERA’s initial full-year projection of 26,000-27,000 units, despite competition from a sizeable pipeline of Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) units released during the year. Two SBF exercises were launched in 2025 – in February and July, following the Budget 2025 announcement. Notably, the February SBF exercise was the largest to date, offering 5,590 flats.

At the same time, the number of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) fell to 6,973 units in 2025. This represents the lowest supply of MOP flats in 11 years, since 2014, when only 5,301 units entered the resale market.” 

Million-dollar flat transactions are rising, but still account for a small share of the market

In 4Q 2025, a further 331 million-dollar flat transactions were recorded up to 30 December 2025, the lowest quarterly tally for the year. This brings the total number of million-dollar flat transactions to 1,574 units for the full year, about 52.1% higher than the previous peak of 1,035 units in 2024.

Overall, HDB resale prices remained affordable in 4Q 2025, with about 73% of transactions taking place below the $750,000 price point. Additionally, million-dollar flats made up only 6.9% of all transactions in the quarter. 

These higher-value transactions remained concentrated in mature estates, which accounted for around 91% of all million-dollar deals over 4Q 2025. 

In addition, over half (52.4%) of million-dollar deals in the year (up to 30 December 2025) involved newer flats aged 15 years or below. This reflects ongoing demand for newer HDB homes in centrally-located, mature estates. 

Outlook for 2026

In 2026, the HDB RPI is expected to continue its steady climb of 2-5%, supported by the higher price base established in 2025. At the same time, a larger pool of approximately 11,181 3-room and larger flats reaching their MOP in 2026 should help sustain both resale price growth and transaction activity. 

For the year ahead, ERA forecasts HDB resale transactions to range between 26,000 and 27,000 units. This outlook is driven by two key factors: a larger pipeline of about 13,840 MOP flats entering the resale market and steady price growth, which may encourage more homeowners to sell. 

For media enquiries, please contact:

Lisha Rodney

Public Relations Manager, ERA Singapore

Email: Lisha.Rodney@era.com.sg

Disclaimer

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